Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lot of time for armchair cycling commentators and even assuming that the Etixx Quick Step sprinter had stumbled upon this I don’t think it was just me that Cav was trying to prove a point to in Dubai at the start of this month. Cavendish took two stage wins and the overall GC in what was always likely to be another sprint fest on the Arabian Peninsula. Of course the win here won’t (read hasn’t) silenced the speculation over whether or not he can reclaim the throne from Marcel Kittel or, perhaps more importantly, earn another lucrative contract with his team. Even Patrick Lefevere is suggesting that Cavendish needs results if he wants to be re-signed by the erstwhile OPQS squad. Of course Kittel was absent from Dubai this year, so all bets are currently off over who has come into the season in better form, the key showdown likely to come at the Tour. However Lefevere indicated that Cavendish needed to perform in the early season races like this weekend’s Kuurne Brussel Kuurne and the first monument of 2015; Milan San Remo. The Belgian squad can’t change its spots as far as wins in the classics being the priority despite the investment in GC riders like Uran and emergence of Kwiatowski (admittedly no slouch in the one day races either). The impression I get is that a repeat of Cavendish’s 2009 MSR victory will be enough to ensure his continued employment with the potential size of his contract dictated by continuing that form into the summer.
One of the riders that Cavendish will need to beat in MSR is Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb. The Giant sprinter was the main threat to Cavendish on GC in Dubai and while the Manxman impressed with his 17th place on the one stage that offered an opportunity for the climbers, Degenkolb showed his versatility by scaling the steep sides of the Hatta Dam faster than Alejandro Valverde to take victory and briefly hold the overall lead. Giant have an abundance of sprinters, but it’s to their advantage that each of them bring something different to the party. Degenkolb can do the out and out bunch sprinter thing, even if he isn’t quite at the level of Kittel or Cavendish for outright speed. He’s emerging as a rider who is potentially more valuable in terms of world tour points however as he will be in the mix on (more than just) a pan flat sprinters stage and he can figure in one day races too. Even last year with his podium in Paris Roubaix and remaining at the sharp end on the Ronde until the last few km’s showed that Degenkolb could prove to be the more intriguing Giant sprinter to watch in 2015.
The other take out for me in Dubai was Elia Viviani taking stage 2 and his first win in Sky colours. I think Viviani will be a great signing for Sky as they haven’t had a pure speed guy since Cavendish left. Of course it’s possible that Viviani will end up feeling just as frustrated as Cavendish if he’s selected for the Tour as Sky will be entirely focused on getting Chris Froome back into the yellow jersey, but if instead the Italian is picked for the Giro I expect he will claim wins. Sky also had Ben Swift in Dubai, but he’s morphed into a Degenkolb style rider and will be hoping to improve upon his third place at last years MSR. Most of the column inches will be given over to Bradley Wiggins tilt at Paris Roubaix this season and as much I would like to see Wiggins feature there I’m hoping that Swift is able to build on his return to form last year and get a big win in 2015.
It was a shame that we didn’t get to see any of the action from the Tour of Oman this year. Since I started the blog I have enjoyed getting an early look at the grand tour contenders in what is the only one of the desert races that isn’t all flat stick racing. It’s often a good guide to form for the summer too, although Froome’s repeat win in 2014 ultimately didn’t guarantee a repeat in the Tour. Whether or not it was to do with the TV coverage this year (or lack of) the big names were absent from this years edition with Valverde and Tejay Van Garderen the pre-race favourites. Vincenzo Nibali was in Oman (and Dubai) but his presence has been decidedly low key and at this point his form is as much of a closed book as it was ahead of last years Tour.
The eventual winner was Lampre’s Rafael Valls (no, me neither). Valls won the key stage with the summit finish on the Green Mountain from Van Garderen and this was enough to ensure the overall. From the VCSE sofa Valls looks like one of those riders who could be (infamously) described as ‘coming from nowhere’. He’s been with Lampre since Vacansoleil folded at the end of 2013 and this win is by far his biggest to date. Lampre, who didn’t exactly see much of a return on investment from Chris Horner last season and have finally parted company with perennial under achiever Damiano Cunego no doubt will wish Valls’ victory heralds the dawn of something big. If he does build on the result this could mean big things for Spanish cycling too as Alberto Contador is discussing retirement and Valverde isn’t getting any younger.
It’s hard to say why there wasn’t at least a daily highlights package from Oman this year. Of the three desert races Dubai, the upstart, has by far and way the best coverage in so much as you can watch it live. The Tour of Oman is an ASO supported race and no less than Eddy Merckx is on hand to glad hand the press and yet it has been possible only to follow ‘live’ on social media in 2015. Oman doesn’t have the riches of Dubai (or Qatar) but surely it’s the quality of the racing that should take precedent as far as coverage is concerned? Oman’s demotion in the TV stakes is a bit of an uncomfortable example of what happens in a sport where there is (comparatively) little money around. If the future of the early season racing (at least as far as TV is concerned) is that armchair fans can only see the ‘action’ in Dubai because that’s where the money flows it will be a change for the worse.
This time a year ago the talk was not so much of who would win the Tour but the margin of victory. With the exception of Tirreno Adriatico Chris Froome had been victorious in everything he had entered and he was the firm favourite ahead of the opening stages in Corsica. This year the pre-race chatter has been dominated by the will they, won’t they (non) selection of Bradley Wiggins for Sky’s Tour team.
In some ways this has been a welcome distraction for Froome as his season to date has been punctuated by injury, illness and being found wanting by some of his chief rivals for the GC this year, most recently Alberto Contador in the Criterium du Dauphine. As defending champion and undisputed leader of the Sky team Froome is of course among the favourites for the 101st edition of the Tour. The key here is that he is merely among the favourites, rather than being the outstanding candidate to take the general classification. Sky’s domination of the race in recent years does allow this rivals to remain somewhere below the radar however. Contador, who gave the impression of a rider clinging on by his fingernails in last years race has looked back to his best this year, showing his best form when he has wanted to demonstrate his superiority of a rival like he did to Alejandro Valverde at this years Pais Vasco.
Contador looks most likely to break the Sky hold over the GC, but there are other riders waiting in the wings who may yet cause an upset on the way. The aforementioned Valverde has looked other worldly at times, particularly in the early season. It’s hard to imagine that the Spaniard will be any more than a podium contender though. If Movistar had wanted to win this year they should have picked Nairo Quintana, last years runner up and this years Giro victor. Last years Giro winner Vicenzo Nibali should arguably have been the man cast in Contador’s role this year. Utterly dominant in the 2013 Giro and Tirreno Adriatico (where he crucially had the beating of Froome) Nibali began to fray around the edges at the Vuelta and he hasn’t looked anywhere near his 2013 best this season. Nibali was often a thorn in Sky’s side at the 2012 Tour though and he has the ability to hurt the GC riders in the mountain stages. A podium is a possibility, but VCSE suspects that a stage win or two may prove to be the goal for the Astana leader.
In Quintana’s absence the young guns should be well represented by US pairing Tejay van Garderen and Andrew Talansky. BMC struggled last year trying to accomodate two leaders in Cadel Evans and van Garderen. Evans’ absence this year should help Tejay but he would have to be an outside bet for a podium place. A top ten is more likely. Talansky’s Garmin team have demonstrated their mastery of in race tactics, particularly when targeting a stage win as with Dan Martin in the Pyrenees last year. Talansky was in the right place at the right time in the Dauphine when he stole the race lead from Contador on the last stage to win the overall. He’s a stronger candidate for the podium than van Garderen but once again a top 10 feels more likely. This is Talansky’s opportunity to improve on his result from last years Tour and to become the rider around who future Garmin Tour efforts are built now that Martin’s year has been disrupted by injury.
Aside of the main contenders Joaquim Rodriguez was a fairly late addition for the Tour after his plans for the Giro were upset by injury in the Ardennes. Rodriguez took a stealthy podium last year but it’s harder to see him repeating that result 12 months later. Belkin, in the form of Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam were a bit of surprise package last year. The Dutch outfit have the motivation (if not pressure) of the announcement that their team sponsor are withdrawing at the end of this season and Mollema has looked in good form in recent weeks. Again it’s an unlikely podium, but with the teams sponsor difficulties a headline grabbing stage win could be the target for the either rider.
World champion Rui Costa was successful with stage wins last year but his goal this year will be a stronger showing on GC. He’s managed a win in the rainbow stripes this season which deals with any superstitious fears that may have existed for the rider about the supposed ‘curse’ but it’s unlikely he will be looking to repeat wins in 2014. France demands at least one stage win in the race it gave to the world. Last year we had a long wait for Christophe Riblon to come good for AG2R. VCSE offers the following names to look out for at this years Tour for GC contention and / or a stage win; Roman Bardet (AG2R) and Kevin Reza (Europcar).
With the loss of Vacansoleil and the elevation of Europcar to the world tour it’s meant that we have a bit more variety in the wildcard invitations this year. Anglo-German Net App Endura have a decent shout of a top 10 with Leopold Konig after the teams ‘dry run’ at last years Vuelta. IAM cycling were in contention for the overall at the Tour de Suisse and will bring a strong squad to the Tour with previous stage winners in Chavanel and Haussler. Stage wins may well be the target for the team, but they have riders that could prove to be contenders on GC also.
So who will actually win? Putting aside the fact the Froome is hard to like because of the Wiggins non-selection he remains the rider most likely to win this years Tour, albeit with more caveats than last year. Contador looks super strong and if Valverde and Nibali both bring their A game the Sky rider will face more assaults than he did a year ago. Also Froome’s most trusted helper Richie Porte is struggling for form and it remains to be seen if Mikel Nieve can establish a similar bond with his leader. Sky have assembled a very experienced unit with a good mix of riders who can shepherd Froome through the tricky stages like Arenberg as well as the type of stage that saw him cut adrift by cross winds last year. This is Contador’s best chance of a repeat Tour victory, but he has lost a key helper in Roman Kreuziger due to bio passport irregularities just days ahead of the grand depart. Will this upset the Tinkoff Saxo applecart? Unlikely, but anything that chips away at Contador’s confidence will be to Froome’s benefit. Every GC rider faces the difficult stages in Yorkshire and on the Roubaix cobbles and this could lead to some riders going out of contention before the peloton reaches the Vosges for the start of the climbing proper.
Mark Cavendish will have another go at claiming the maillot jaune for the first time in his career. Cavendish could place some of the blame for missing out on yellow on last years first stage on the Orica team bus getting stuck at the finish line, but as the race went on it became clear that he’s no longer the man to beat in sprint stages. Marcel Kittel may have ‘stolen’ Cav’s jersey on that first stage in Corsica but by beating the Omega Pharma Quick Step rider in Paris it looked as if the crown and sceptre for the king of the fast men was going to the younger man. Even if Cavendish wasn’t targeting the win into his Mum’s home town of Harrogate on Saturday he can rely on a partisan UK crowd and the media to make it ‘his’ goal. In some ways there’s more pressure on Cavendish to win this stage than their will be to beat Kittel on the Champs Elysee in three weeks time. Both riders have reconnoitered the opening stages and while Kittel may respect his rival he won’t be sentimental about handing the win to Cavendish. Much as VCSE would like to see Cavendish take yellow it seems more likely that Kittel will take the lions share of the stage wins and will lead the GC into the second stage.
Peter Sagan only managed a single stage victory at last years Tour but should see a third straight win in the points competition. Sagan could target a victory as early as stage 2 which has been described as a Yorkshire version of Liege Bastogne Liege. He will also be among the favourites for the stage that takes in part of the Paris Roubaix cobbled route on stage 5. Sagan could have a rival this year in Orica’s Simon Gerrans, a rider in good form who while unable to match Sagan in a sprint is as least as good if not better over the climbs.
Andre Greipel is reduced to playing second, if not third fiddle to Cavendish and Kittel these days and will need some kind of mishap to befall the leading riders to be in with a chance of stage win at this years Tour. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has won the internal battle to become lead rider and could be another outside bet for a win, but is more likely to contest stage podiums.
KOM is harder to predict this year. It’s possible that we might see a repeat of 2012 where the rider in the break secures the points and the jersey and this seems more likely than a repeat of last year where Quintana took a sweep of the KOM and young riders jerseys on his way to second place.
Key stages of the 2014 Tour de France
Armchair fans can watch the race live on ITV4 and British Eurosport again this year. Who you choose may depend on your choice of television provider but it’s a shame that Eurosport won’t repeat their pairing of Rob Hatch and Sean Kelly like they did at the Giro. Hatch seemed to get the best out of Kelly and their commentary is preferable to the prospect of Carlton Kirby in the lead chair. Kirby is as eccentric as Phil Liggett is predictable but ITV4 will probably win out thanks to a stronger presentation team in Gary Imlach and Chris Boardman outweighing Liggetts spoonerisms.
With a UK grand depart it’s also a lot easier to go and see the race in person although the peloton will disappear in a bit of flash on the flat stage 3 into London. The fan parks in Yorkshire and London may be better places to watch the action before heading to the finish line to see the final sprints.
Stages 1 thru’ 3 – Leeds to Harrogate, York to Sheffield, Cambridge to London Sat, Sun, Mon 5,6,7th July
The UK based stages will be worth a watch to see if Mark Cavendish can claim his first ever yellow jersey on stage 1 and to see if there are any early GC casualties on the challenging stage 2 that has 9 catergorised climbs.
Stage 5 – Ypres to Arenberg Porte du Hainaut Weds 9th July
The stage that takes in 15 kilometres of the Paris Roubaix cobbles is otherwise a flat, transitional stage. GC riders will be looking to stay out of trouble and it’s likely to be a chance for the rouleurs from each team to grab some glory with a stage win.
Stage 10 – Mulhouse to La Planche des Belles Filles Mon 14th July
The summit finish where Froome won the stage in 2012 and Wiggins took the maillot jaune revisits in 2014 after a testing stage the previous day where the Tour takes in the first cat 1 climb of the race and the highest peak in the Vosges the Grand Ballon. Stage 10 has three other cat 1 climbs besides the Belle Filles along with a pair of cat 2 and a single cat 3 climb over its 162kms.
Stage 14 – Grenoble to Risoul Sat 19th July
The toughest day the peloton will face in the Alps this year. The stage includes the Col d’Izoard one of the most iconic climbs that the Tour uses and home to some of its most dramatic scenery. The stage has a cat 1 summit finish at Risoul
Stage 17 – St Gaudens to St Lary Pla D’Adet Weds 23rd July
Three cat 1 climbs including the Peyresourde before finishing with a HC summit finish of just over 10km at slightly more than 8%. It’s the shortest stage outside of the TT stages but should be a tough one.
Stage 18 – Pau to Hautacam Thurs 24th July
The final day of climbing in this years Tour takes in the famed climbs of the Tourmalet and finishing atop the Hautacam. Both climbs are HC and account for roughly 20% of the stages entire distance. If the GC isn’t decided by now it’s still possible that the TT on Saturday could provide a final shake up.
Stage 19 – Bergerac to Perigueux Sat 26th July
The penultimate stage has the potential to be a TT that’s actually worth watching live or merely be the icing on the GC cake for the holder of the maillot jaune. If there are still small time gaps between the leading contenders then riders will be looking over the shoulders as the strong testers take back time on them. If Froome is leading at this point, this stage is likely to increase the gap. If it’s Contador he will have to hope that he has built up enough of a cushion in the Pyrenees.
In our last post we discussed then (plain old) Bradley, now Sir Bradley Wiggins performance at last years Tour of Britain. In what should have been a valedictory event for the 2012 Tour de France and Olympic time trial winner, the Sky rider instead abandoned the race at the halfway point after a bizarre performance during which time he turned round and rode back the way he came in search of teammate Mark Cavendish.
Wiggins stated aim this season, to win the Giro d’Italia, had looked in doubt from the outset as the Wigan based rider was unable to repeat his imperious form of the previous year and he often struggled to make the top five on GC in his preparation events like the Giro de Trentino. Wiggins hopes in the Giro went down the drain with the heavy rainfall that was such a feature at the event. A seemingly innocuous crash in the first week seemed to damage his confidence and he withdrew before the race finished. Pre Giro there had also been the debate, often fueled by Wiggins, about leadership of the Sky team at this years Tour de France. His performance at the Giro was probably the confirmation that the Sky hierarchy needed that Chris Froome, as well as being more suited to the parcours, was now the number one rider at the team.
And so it was a different Bradley Wiggins that emerged from the aftermath of Team Sky’s celebration of a second successive Tour win, making a low key return a week after the Grand Boucle in the Tour of Poland. He was entered in this event to target the individual time trial stage, pitching himself against one of his chief rivals for the world TT championships. Interviewed in the build up to the race the world’s TT was held up as the now 10kg heavier Wiggins goals for the end of season. And there, quietly in the background, was the announcement that in addition to the individual test, he would lead Sky at this years Tour of Britain and it was a race he intended to win.
There has been some critical mass building to Wiggins performance in last weeks race. His actual race form hadn’t sparkled after winning the stage in Poland, but he was finishing races and becoming a decent interviewee again. It can’t have been easy for Wiggins to admit that the reason he didn’t call Chris Froome to congratulate him in Paris was his fault as he didn’t have his mobile number. Both Wiggins and Sky had kept things low key when commenting on his participation in Poland and the following Eneco Tour, but as far as his home race was concerned the talk was of targeting the GC. Perhaps critically here, in addition to a strong supporting line up including Stannard, Eisel and Lopez, Shane Sutton was back in the fold after early season announcements that he would no longer play an active role in the Sky set up.
The first couple of stages held in typically wet British weather had been a sprinters party, despite an uphill finish on stage 2 in the Lake District. Milan San Remo winner Gerald Ciolek would have been reminded of the weather on the Italian coast earlier this year as he overhauled An Post’s Sam Bennett to win and take over the leaders gold jersey. Sky had kept Wiggins protected and near the front for these stages and there was a suggestion that he was in for the long haul when even he admitted that he “..would have climbed off” because of the conditions if he wasn’t motivated for the overall. Confirmation of this came the following day when Wiggins made several runs around the TT course at Knowsley. Tellingly rival Alex Dowsett, getting over a cold, chose to reconoittre the route from his team car. Dowsett was out of the starting hut before Wiggins, but any contest with his Sky rival was soon made academic as other riders went faster. Wiggins, the only rider to break 20 minutes for the test, was into the lead.
The following day brought the first of three stage wins for Mark Cavendish. Sunday’s misfire of the Omega Pharma sprint train was forgotten as the world tour teams began to impose themselves on the peloton. Another world tour squad were making their presence felt in the other competitions. Movistar’s Angel Madrasso was a permanent fixture in the breaks all week and thanks to an infringement on the final stage was able to claim both the KOM and sprinters prizes. For the smaller teams the pickings were pretty slim. The chance to feature in the break or a bunch sprint was the best that most could hope for. With talk of the ToB moving up to HC status in the future many of the British squads will feel disappointed that they didn’t come away with a better result. There would have been mixed feelings among the 3rd level teams at Simon Yates stage win on Dartmoor. The British U23 squad had appeared the previous year, but Yate’s win following both his and his twin brothers performances in the Tour de Avenir will have put both riders first in the queue for a contract with the world tour squads. The emphasis on shorter criterium style events seems to blunt the opportunity for some of the young riders in the British conti squads to shine.
Despite the bad weather earlier in the week, crowds at this years race if anything seemed even bigger than the year before. Certainly the final stage around central London had a last day of the Tour feel and Cavendish served up the perfect result, winning convincingly. Wiggins was lost in the bunch over the line, but maintained a comfortable lead at the finish. Both riders had demonstrated their respect for the race in interviews all week, Cavendish showing his pride at winning the final stage at his home race and Wiggins describing that there are “..no easy stages on the Tour of Britain” earlier in the week. Inevitably, talk is already turning to what will Wiggins do next. The rider is focused on the world championship time trial, what comes next will be interesting. A stated aim is to win another gold medal at the Olympics in 2016. That still leaves at least one season where, perhaps, Wiggins will target another race with ‘history’. Paris Roubaix perhaps?
We will be sharing our fans eye view of the penultimate stage from Epsom to Guildford shortly. Don’t forget to visit our Facebook page where you can bid for a T shirt signed by Tour of Britain legends including Tour de France 2013 stage winner Dan Martin!
World Championships – Team Time Trial
Omega Pharma successfully defended the TTT title in Florence on Sunday. Sky, denuded of Wiggins due to the ToB still managed to take 3rd place reinforcing their reputation as one of the strongest TTT outfits. Runners up were winners of the TTT at this years Tour Orica Greenedge. The women’s TTT was also defended successfully with Specialized Lululemon taking the win.
No domestic broadcasters are taking the live pictures from the event, so you will need to check out UCI TV for live streaming.
More teams to fold
In addition to the loss of Vacansoleil it was rumoured over the weekend that second tier French outfit Sojasun would also be folding due to a lack of sponsorship for 2014. VCSE had reported the apparent saving of Euskatel by Fernando Alonso a couple of weeks back, but both parties have officially announced that they were unable to reach agreement on the structure of the team for 2014. Alonso has vowed to build a team from scratch which suggests that he still intends to pursue a world tour licence. However, he is suggesting that this team will not appear until 2015 at the earliest so there will be a lot more Spanish and French riders looking for rides next year. Expect to see a lot of animation from these riders at the worlds and at the Giro di Lombardia as they look to catch the eye of a prospective employer.
Stages 1 & 2 of the Tour of California have been run in soaring temperatures in the golden state. The week long stage race historically run earlier in the season is now used by some riders as Tour preparation, but the clash with the Giro means that the high profile names of previous years tend to be missing. Unsurprisingly there’s a strong US presence and a win in the TOC has proved to be a springboard into the world tour in previous years, Joe Dombrowski a good example after a strong performance in 2012 with the Bontrager squad.
In a change to previous years the race takes on more of a south to north route this time with the final stage run in the heartland of west coast cycling (if you’re an old school mountain biker!) with locations like Mt Tamalpais and Muir Woods featuring on the course. All time TOC stage winner Peter Sagan is present for Cannondale alongside world champion Philippe Gilbert.
In a land where the automobile is king the parcours featured climbs with fantastic road surfaces that snaked leisurely up the hills with fairly gentle ramps. The enemy for the riders was not the incline or distance but the searing heat that reached a peak on stage 2. Racing to the home of reclusive billionaires and golf fanatics the peloton negotiated climbs through the surrounding desert in temperatures of 115 degrees. On both days the team cars were kept busy supplying a steady stream of water filled bidons for the riders to promptly empty over their boiling heads.
In contrast to the climbs the stages also featured fairly long drags through Escondido and Palm Springs the six lane roads dwarfing the peloton. The inclusion of these elements certainly helped the breakaways to be brought back before the finish, although stage 2 had a sting in the tail with an 8% uphill to the finish.
Stage 1 bought a much needed win for Vacansoliel and Leiuwe Westra. The world tour team who have just lost co lead sponsor DCM were racing in new jerseys featuring much more Bianchi celeste than previously. With the possibility of Vacansoliel leaving at the end of the season also might we be seeing another team entered by a manufacturer (Cannondale the other example).
The continental level US teams were always likely to get in the breaks to maximise airtime for their sponsors. It was a little unusual to see one of the European big names in one on stage 2, but there was Sylvian Chavanel, a late replacement for Tom Boonen. Whether or not Chavanel appreciated the contrast between the conditions at, say this years Milan San Remo with the TOC heat wasn’t clear. The 6km drag up to the finish line in Palm Springs probably wouldn’t have been that taxing climbed in the sort of temperatures enjoyed in Northern Europe in May. In 115 degree desert heat the climb was something to be endured. The ramp continued after the finish line but it was clear from the amount of riders who came to a dead stop after passing it that the TOC helpers who held them upright were an absolute requirement.
Pre race favourite Tejay van Garderen (BMC) was in a small group chasing ex Cervelo Test Team rider Philip Deignan on the stage reached its conclusion. As Deignan was overhauled it was Janier Acevedo of Jamis who was able to put in another dig to reach the line first. The sound of the finish line announcer ramping up the hyperbole in contrast to riders being hooked up to drips for rehydration made it feel like VCSE was watching one thing and listening to another. The weather may have been different, but just like a spring classic stage 2 demonstrated that road racing is a game for hard men.
Giro d’Italia – VCSE reflects ahead of the first summit finish on stage 10
Ok, so we’re writing this after stage 10 has finished but VCSE hasn’t watched it yet (bear with). Monday was the first rest day in the Giro and today (Tuesday) was one of our stages to watch as it’s the first summit finish proper on this years race.
Since the individual time trial on Saturday and the rest day there’s been one more stage (9) through the Abruzzo region to Florence racing over some of the same roads used in Tirreno Adriatico. This was quite a rolling stage with almost a full set of category climbs, including a one, two, three and four on the route.
After a dryish day for the TT, stage 9 saw the kind of weather that had made stage 7 such a nightmare for Bradley Wiggins with pretty much constant rain during the live TV coverage. Wiggins admitted he had descended “..like a girl” on the previous stage and didn’t look confident on any of the descents for this one either. Meanwhile, race leader Vincenzo Nibali was capitalising with his Astana team assisted at various stages by other teams with GC contenders, notably David Millar of Garmin. Coming down from the cat 1 Vallombrosa Wiggins was gapped and was left to try and make up (at one point) a deficit of more than two minutes. As his two Columbian teammates, climbers Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao had stayed ahead some of the wilder punditry VCSE has heard so far predicted that Wiggins was now relinquishing his position as Sky team leader.
These (now silent) commentators were brought gently back to earth when Wiggins rejoined the lead group and began to make his way back to the front as the race neared its conclusion. While the Sky crisis that wasn’t was sucking up the airtime up ahead there was another magnificent solo effort to rival Adam Hansen’s. Katusha’s Maxim Belkov had attacked off the front of the breakaway a group he was part of and managed to build up enough of a time gap ahead of the remaining break stay clear when most of them were caught on the final climb of the stage. Perhaps Belkov’s win, his first as a pro on a road stage wasn’t that much of a surprise as he admitted afterwards “I live next to here (Florence) in Prato, so I know these roads”.
Astana looked after Nibali to keep him on the top of GC with Cadel Evans again finishing strongly to keep the gap to 29 seconds. Robert Gesink, who has been anonymous for most of the Giro in comparison to the other GC riders remained in third. The hubris of Millar’s attempt to make the Sky chase back on harder was exposed when Ryder Hesjedal cracked on the last climb and the resulting time loss dropped him outside of the top 10. After all of the doom laden pronouncements by people who should perhaps know better Wiggins managed to come home on the same time as Nibali, thus maintaining his 4th place, one second down on Gesink.
During the rest day interviews Nibali still saw Hesjedal and Wiggins as rivals even as some were prepared to write off their challenges with two more weeks to go. “The Giro is long and anyone can have a bad day” said Nibali who also mentioned Cadel and Michele Scarponi as riders he would be looking out for. Scarponi is a great example of a rider to look at when suggesting Wiggins (or Hesjedal) have blown it. The Lampre rider who had lost time earlier in the week when he damaged his bike in a crash had suggested himself that he was out of contention, but strong rides in the remaining stages had pulled him back up the GC. Nibali also indicated that we hadn’t seen Sky riding their normal stage race tactic and set a hard pace on the front of the peloton. In setting the pace at the front themselves on stage 9, Astana had burnt most of their matches leaving Nibali with only one supporter at the finish. While Nibali is strong enough to fend for himself on the climbs, it won’t have gone unnoticed that Sky have additional cards to play with Uran and Henao both strongly placed on the GC.
Cadel Evans has been the revelation of the Giro so far. He has looked better in the last week than at any other time this season and apart from Nibali and Wiggins was probably the best of the GC in the TT. In comparison, Ryder Hesjedal looks as if he peaked too soon. After looking strong in the Ardennes and surprising his rivals by attacking hard in week one, he looked blown on the TT and on stage 9. It’s possible to pull back three minutes, but Hesjedal will be relying on Nibali and co’ to falter if he is seriously still considering defending his title.
VCSE is sticking with the prediction that Nibali will win the Giro. Unlike Evans and Wiggins, he isn’t planning to race the Tour so this is his year’s target. Evan’s has looked good so far, but can he maintain his form as the climbs get higher? Wiggins will get over his descending jitters, although he has never been great at this discipline. Sky will be praying for dry weather just as Astana will do a rain dance. No doubt Dave Brailsford has team head doctor Steve Peters on speed dial to get his team leader in the right frame of mind for the week ahead. It’s not over yet, but VCSE predicts podium at best for Wiggins. The outside bets? Gesink who says “..everything is going to plan so far”. He’s another rider targeting the Giro only this year. Scarponi is back in the frame and VCSE thinks that Vini Fantini’s Mauro Santambrogio is good for a podium place.
Remember our caveat; this post will go out after stage 10 has run, so all could have changed! What’s your view on the last week and the week ahead in the Giro? Let us know via the comments section below.